I hope this book will help you develop successful asset allocation strategies and risk management policies based on the economic cycle.
— Han Seung-cheol, CEO of Welcome Asset Management

A detailed explanation of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision-making process and the Federal Reserve’s policy tools can provide valuable insights for forecasting the Fed’s actions.
— Lee Gwan-hui, Professor at Seoul National University Business School and author of “Lee Gwan-hui’s Capital Markets Stories”

This is an essential framework for understanding the Federal Reserve—the core of the modern global economy.
— Ko Byung-wook, Vice President of Dominus Investment

This book will enhance your ability to read and interpret economic data.
— Choi Byung-jeong, Head of the Financial AI Division at Testworks Co., Ltd. and former Chief Data Officer of Hana Card

I highly recommend this book to anyone seeking practical wisdom for interpreting economic data and forecasting the future.
— Jeong Hoon, Vice President of Seoul Appraisal Information Co., Ltd.

★ 2026 Macroeconomic Update! An authoritative guide to deciphering Federal Reserve policy, unraveling the interconnectedness of the global economy, and illuminating the flow of capital!
★ A unique “three-step framework” clearly explains capital flows and macroeconomic dynamics, analyzing the interplay among the real economy, Fed policy, and financial markets.
★ In-depth analysis of the Fed’s hawk–dove tug-of-war, the FOMC’s debate over the neutral interest rate, and the monetary-policy shift under new Chairman Kevin Warsh—covering soaring oil prices following the U.S.–Iran conflict, stagflation risks, and how artificial intelligence is reshaping productivity and the monetary-policy landscape.
★ Offers methods for monitoring economic indicators and asset-allocation strategies, with a forward-looking assessment of market prospects through 2026, focusing on the interplay of Iranian risks, stagflation concerns, and asset reallocation to provide comprehensive insights for macro‑oriented investing!

“The Fed’s Great Transformation: Capital Flows Are Changing Once Again!”

The Iran conflict, Kevin Warsh and artificial intelligence, stagflation… How should we interpret the intricate web of global economic interconnections?
From the tug-of-war between the Federal Reserve’s hawks and doves to the heated debates within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), this book offers macro‑investment insights into the post‑war trajectory of the Fed and interest rates. Following the U.S.–Iran war, oil prices have surged, intensifying the risk of stagflation. Meanwhile, with Kevin Warsh poised to take the helm as Fed chair—the engine of the global economy—future rate moves are drawing close scrutiny. In today’s macroeconomic crisis, uncertainty abounds, making it essential to accurately decipher and respond to economic trends in order to make sound investment and management decisions.
But can both novices and seasoned professionals navigate the uncertainties facing the global economy with ease? The author, a leading global finance expert, presents a clear, original “three‑step framework” for interpreting capital flows through a macroeconomic lens. He examines how the three pillars of the real economy (the fundamentals), Fed policy, and financial markets interact, using case studies of economic‑indicator fluctuations to illustrate their impact on capital flows. The book also provides comprehensive guidance on macro‑investing, including methods for monitoring key indicators and strategies for asset allocation.
This revised edition focuses on the ongoing struggle between hawks and doves within the Fed, the paradigm shift ushered in by new Chair Kevin Warsh’s monetary-policy philosophy, and the intense debate at the FOMC over the neutral interest rate. Moreover, it explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping productivity and the landscape of monetary policy, while projecting the market outlook through 2026—a future in which Iran risks, stagflation concerns, and asset reallocation converge.

Lee Jeong-woo
Lee Jeong-woo is a global financial expert with more than 20 years of experience in international investment and management consulting. He is the founder and CEO of IFE Analytics, a firm dedicated to global business development, international financial and economic research, and AI‑based investment strategies. At the Trevari Book Club, he leads the “Decoding Global Finance and Economics” discussion group, and through Naver Premium Content’s “IFE Analytics” series, he explains the latest trends and key issues in the international economy and finance in an accessible and easy‑to‑understand manner. He graduated from Seoul National University and holds an MBA from KAIST’s Graduate School of Management, as well as a Master’s degree in International Affairs from Columbia University (New York), specializing in international finance and economic policy. He previously served as Wall Street correspondent for Money Today Broadcasting under MTN, analyzing market trends, and gained firsthand experience in policy decision‑making as a graduate fellow at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Most recently, he earned a Master’s degree in Cognitive Science from Seoul National University, focusing on behavioral economics. He has worked at leading global consulting firms including IBM, Accenture, Kearney, and Deloitte Consulting. Later, at a Hong Kong‑based private equity firm, he was responsible for corporate valuation and acquisitions, formulating management strategies for target companies and innovating their financial and accounting structures. He has also provided global business advisory services to small and medium‑sized enterprises and startups in the AI, biotech, and semiconductor sectors, guiding them into overseas markets and expanding their operations, and remains actively engaged in these fields today.

Preface: Capturing Signals Amid the Federal Reserve’s Dilemma

Part I: Foundations – How the Real Economy Drives Policy and Markets
Chapter 1: Real‑Economy Indicators That Keep the Federal Reserve on Guard
Chapter 2: The Relationship Between the Real Economy and the Federal Reserve

Part II: Policy – How Does the Federal Reserve Communicate with the Market?
Chapter 3: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s Core Monetary-Policy Decision‑Making Body
Chapter 4: The Federal Reserve’s Key Policy Tools
Chapter 5: The Dynamic Interplay Between Fed Policy and the Real Economy

Part III: Markets – How Do Markets Respond?
Chapter 6: The Link Between Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Indicators
Chapter 7: The Impact of Macroeconomics on Commodity and Real‑Estate Markets

Part IV: Dynamics and Feedback Loops
Chapter 8: Understanding the Interaction Among the Real Economy, Policy, and Markets
Chapter 9: Strategies for Investing by Leveraging This Interaction

Part V: The 2026 Macro Environment and the Federal Reserve’s Major Transformation
Chapter 10: The Federal Reserve’s Power Structure: Who Determines Monetary Policy?
Chapter 11: The Washington Consensus: A Fundamental Shift in the Fed’s Policy Philosophy by 2026
Chapter 12: Internal Debates Within the Federal Open Market Committee: Three Distinct Voices

Conclusion: How to Interpret Capital Flows