"China's economy has entered a crucial decade: challenges abound, and opportunities more so. In From Catch-up to Maturity, Dr. Feng Xuming, a representative of China's new generation of economists, sharply analyzes population structure, industrial development, urban-rural dynamics, fiscal and monetary policy, and the global expansion of Chinese enterprises. Anyone unwilling to miss the tide of the times should read it closely."
——Li Daokui, Distinguished Professor at Tsinghua University and Dean of the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking (ACCEPT)

"A major work on the trends of China's economy over the coming decade. The economist's professional narrative unfolds with ease, bringing the exhilaration of clarity after intellectual challenge. Observing the paths taken by developed countries and seeking the way to realize China's blueprint, it shows how China in the post-catch-up era can unlock potential, harvest dividends, open a second growth space and move toward maturity."
——Yang Zhiyong, President of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences

"Through population structure, technological change and industrial revolution, urbanization, demand structure, the external economy, five-year planning and macroeconomic regulation, Dr. Feng Xuming argues—in plain language, with facts and cases—that the coming decade is the crucial period in which China's economy moves from catch-up to maturity. Of great value for all sectors seeking to understand China's economy; well worth reading."
——Zhu Baoliang, former Chief Economist of the State Information Center

"Over the coming decade, on the road toward 2035, a true 'coming-of-age ceremony' awaits China's economy. The familiar narrative of a 'catch-up' economy is retiring, replaced by a profound leap toward a mature economy, powered by AI and driven by technological innovation. External headwinds surge like waves; internal growth now depends on innovation. And Chinese enterprises are bound for wider seas. From Catch-up to Maturity tries to clarify the logic and variables deep in the current—looking at population, industry, urban-rural development, supply and demand, and the balance of international payments—helping readers see the channel and fix their bearings where the river turns, and arrive with the times."
——Si Xiao, Vice President of Tencent and President of the Tencent Research Institute

"How to complete the transition from a latecomer, catch-up economy to a relatively mature modern economy is the major question facing China's economy over the coming decade. In this book, Professor Feng Xuming draws on solid data and fieldwork to take a systematic look at what will change and what will not—population structure, industrial development, urbanization and regional development, the rebalancing of supply and demand—offering many insightful judgments. A useful reference for anyone who wants to understand where China's economy is heading."
——Peng Wensheng, Chief Economist of CICC

"The coming decade is a 'crucial decade' as China works toward its goal of basically achieving modernization. Dr. Feng Xuming's new book defines it as the decade in which China's economy moves from a catch-up economy to a mature one, focusing on the major changes likely to occur in population, industrialization, urbanization, economic rebalancing, the global expansion of Chinese enterprises, and China-US dynamics—offering a young scholar's observations and reflections that help us read the situation and seize opportunities. The book observes that in the coming decade China's economy as a whole will still be in a roaring 'age of great rivers,' while some fields may show the quiet, deep-flowing traits of a 'smaller age.' I could not agree more."
——Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of BOC Securities

"Professor Feng Xuming stands at the crossroads of the times and, with a broad vision, fixes the coordinates of China's economic transformation over the coming decade. He uses 'great rivers surging' as the image for the mighty waves of technological revolution and great-power competition, and 'still waters running deep' for the structural shifts of demographic change and industrial upgrading, dissecting the core logic of the economy's move from high-speed catch-up to high-quality maturity. His analysis combines historical depth with real-world penetration—fine insight inside a grand narrative; a strong work for reading the pulse of China's economy."
——Wu Ge, Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities

"The coming decade is a 'crucial decade' as the country works toward basic modernization. What changes will take place in every aspect of China's economy? This book offers a fairly complete answer, and is well worth reading."
——Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist of the Industrial Bank

★ China's economy is moving from catch-up to maturity. Feng Xuming, a macroeconomist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, maps the coming decade through two original concepts: the "Maturity Dividend" and the "Second Growth Space."
★ Feng Xuming is a research fellow and head of the Macro Policy Research Office at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a Tsinghua PhD in economics and a former visiting scholar at Harvard; he is a lead contributor to the Blue Book of China's Economy and twice won CASS's top award for policy research.
★ Population, industry, region, macroeconomy, policy, international—six chapters take a panoramic look: from the demographic dividend to "investing in people," from traditional industrialization to new industrialization driven by twin technological revolutions, and from "exporting products" to going global and the internationalization of the renminbi.
★ In 2024 China's GNI per capita reached $13,660—within a step of the World Bank's high-income threshold. A dedicated chapter confronts the popular analogy of "China repeating Japan's thirty lost years"—"this is a huge mistake," the author writes.
★ Endorsed by eight leading economists and scholars, including Li Daokui, Peng Wensheng and Guan Tao; the e-book is already available on OverDrive, the international library e-lending platform.

After more than four decades of catch-up growth, China's economy is entering a stage of development that is more complex and calls for greater prudence, where opportunities and challenges coexist. Set at the critical juncture of China's transition from a "catch-up economy" to a "mature economy," and against the backdrop of a reshaping global political-economic landscape and a new round of technological and industrial revolution, this book systematically traces the inner logic of China's economic evolution over the coming decade.

Drawing on years of academic and policy research, and grounded in solid fieldwork and data analysis, the author looks past short-term fluctuations and market noise to the fundamental dimensions that shape medium- and long-term development—population structure, industrial development, urban-rural and regional development, international trade and investment, and five-year planning—to give a deep analysis of the trends, policy directions, new features, new opportunities and new challenges of China's economy over the next ten years.

Feng Xuming
Feng Xuming is Head of the Macro Policy Research Office and a research fellow (doctoral supervisor) at the Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and a research fellow at the Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE), Tsinghua University. His research focuses on the macroeconomy and macro policy, industrial development, and regional development. He graduated from the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, with a doctorate, a bachelor's degree in economics and a bachelor's degree in law, was a visiting scholar in the Harvard Department of Economics, and earlier worked at the township level in Gansu Province. He has been selected into a national high-level talent program. For many years he has been a lead contributor to the annual Blue Book of China's Economy. Several of his research reports have received positive commendations at the national level, he has twice won CASS's top "Special Prize" for policy-relevant research, and he is frequently invited to brief ministries, local governments, large enterprises and financial institutions on economic conditions.

Preface　Getting into the Game: Embracing the "Crucial Decade"
　1 Why Is the Coming Decade the "Crucial Decade"?　2 The Great Changes of the Past Decade　3 Trends of the Coming Decade　4 Great Rivers Surging and Still Waters Running Deep　5 From "Outward Awareness" to "Self-Awareness"

Part One　Overview　From Catch-up to Maturity: The "Crucial Decade" of China's Economy
　1 From Catch-up to Maturity　2 The Post-Catch-up Era　3 The Maturity Dividend of a Major Economy　4 The Second Growth Space

Part Two　Population　From Demographic Quantity to Demographic Quality: "Investing in People"
　1 The Demographic Cycle: Three Peaks and Two Turning Points　2 Aging: From "Baby Boom" to "Elder Boom"　3 Fewer Children: The Trade-off between Quantity and Quality in Fertility Decisions　4 The Generational Transition of the Population　5 The Downsizing of the Household　6 Investing in People

Part Three　Industry　From Traditional to New Industrialization: Twin Technological Revolutions in the Driving Seat
　1 Locating China's Stage of Industrialization　2 New Industrialization Driven by Twin Technological Revolutions　3 The "Industrialization" of Services　4 "Involution-style" Competition and Industry Consolidation

Part Four　Region　From Accelerated to Mature Urbanization: Reshaping the Economic Geography
　1 Locating China's Stage of Urbanization　2 Population Flows and the Reshaping of Industrial Geography　3 From "County Competition" to "City Competition" and "City-Cluster and Metropolitan-Area Competition"　4 Incremental Construction and Stock Renewal　5 Toward Urban-Rural Integration

Part Five　Macro　From "Strong Supply, Weak Demand" to "Strong Supply, Strong Demand": Rebalancing the Macroeconomy and Policy
　1 The Deep Causes of "Strong Supply, Weak Demand"　2 Two Threads of Macro Policy　3 Fiscal Rebalancing　4 The Transformation of the Money-Creation Mechanism

Part Six　Policy　China's Economy through the Five-Year Plan: Plan Guidance and Project Drive
　1 Why Do Five-Year Plans Matter?　2 How Is a Five-Year Plan Made?　3 What Does a Five-Year Plan Contain?　4 Implementation, I: Plan Guidance　5 Implementation, II: Project Drive

Part Seven　International　From Exporting Products to Going Global in Earnest: Seeking New Ground amid Change
　1 China's International Position and Stage of Development　2 A Vast World of Opportunity　3 Leveraging the Advantage of an Ultra-Large Market　4 Chinese Enterprises Going Global　5 The Internationalization of the RMB

References　Afterword