★ This book takes the stage of modern world history from 1776 to 2036 (260 years) and, through the unique lens of "crisis," connects economic collapses, war conflicts, pandemic outbreaks, technological revolutions, and geopolitical shifts, revealing the astonishing cyclical patterns underlying them. It not only narrates "what happened" in history but delves deeper into "why it happened" and "how events triggered one another," providing a rare panoramic cognitive framework for global readers navigating multiple uncertainties.

★ The author, Mr. Guo Qingui, possesses an impressive multidisciplinary background: He is not only a seasoned lawyer practicing at a top-tier law firm in Beijing's Financial Street (China's core financial district), serving numerous large enterprises and financial institutions, but also holds a Master of Laws from Peking University (ranked #14 globally in the QS World University Rankings) and an EMBA from Tsinghua University. Having been a visiting scholar at Harvard University and Yale University, he combines the rigor of a legal professional, the insight of a business mind, and the macro perspective of a historian.

★ The book's core themes precisely address the widespread anxieties of today's global society: from the unsustainable burden of high debt and low interest rates faced by nations, to the widening internal wealth gap and social fragmentation, and further to the geopolitical and trade conflicts triggered by great power rivalry. It helps readers move beyond fragmented news cycles to understand the triple challenges we collectively face—"growth dilemma, internal division, and external competition"—from a long-term cyclical perspective, offering strong contemporary relevance.

★ Of particular importance, the book boldly extends its analysis into the future (2026-2036)—outlining "Six Crisis Shadows" that may loom over the world in the coming decade, including: Geopolitical Conflict, Debt and Financial Crises, Demographic Shifts, the AI Technology Revolution, Climate Change, and Emerging Pandemics.

★ We have never truly conquered crises; we have only learned to build sturdier ships between storms. The book's key insight is this: crises are not accidents but periodic phenomena deeply rooted in economic systems and human nature.

Abandoning traditional narratives of national or chronological history, this book takes "Economic and Financial Crises" as its central thread to examine the key forces that have shaped the modern world order across the 260 years from 1776 to 2036.

The year 1776 witnessed three world-altering events: the beginning of the American Revolutionary War and the Declaration of Independence; the publication of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations; and James Watt's improvement of the steam engine, heralding the First Industrial Revolution.

The history of the world over the past two centuries is, in essence, a history of the rise and fall of great powers driven by economic crises, the winding path of globalization, and the restructuring of the global order. Crises rarely occur in isolation; they are often tightly interwoven with war, plague, technological breakthroughs, policy failures, and geopolitical maneuvering.

The author distills the internal logic and cyclical patterns of crisis outbreaks from history and concludes by boldly adopting a forward-looking perspective, urging readers to pay attention to six potential crisis areas the world may face in the next decade: Geopolitical and War Risks, Debt and Financial Perils, Demographic Challenges, the Double-Edged Sword Effect of the AI Revolution, Climate Change Threats, and the Next Major Pandemic.

Through this three-part "Past-Present-Future" framework, the book successfully weaves scattered historical events into a clear web of understanding. Viewed through the lens of world economic development cycles and crisis history, money, globalization, and technology have played "glorious yet ignoble" roles—propelling the rapid advancement of human society while simultaneously fueling boundless human desire and greed. After the layered deconstruction of a century of crises, what we ultimately see is simply the history of human nature.

Guo Qingui

Lawyer, financial writer, and researcher in financial, economic, business, and technological history. He holds a Master of Laws from Peking University Law School (2005), an EMBA from Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management (2015), and completed the ED program at the Yale Global Leadership Program (2018). He has been a visiting scholar at Harvard University (2017) and Yale University (2019). He has practiced at several prestigious Beijing law firms including Grandall, Zhong Lun, King & Wood Mallesons, and DeHeng. He currently practices at a renowned law firm on Beijing's Financial Street and serves as an independent director for several A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies.

He has provided specialized or ongoing legal services to dozens of well-known multinational corporations, central state-owned enterprises, large financial institutions, and internet technology companies. He has served as legal counsel for several central ministries and local governments. He has acted as counsel in dozens of high-impact litigation and arbitration cases and has provided specialized legal services for over ten mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and private placements of listed companies. His published works include Internet Finance: Business Models and Architecture, Internet Finance: Principles and Practice, Equity Design, Equity Crowdfunding, New Internet Business Models, Megamergers, and others.

Part I The Industrial Revolution and Early Imperial Crises (1776-1900)
Chapter 1 The Industrial Revolution
1.1 How Britain Rose to Power / 004
1.2 Empire on Which the Sun Never Set: Modern Science and the Industrial Revolution / 009
1.3 Markets, Institutions, and the Industrial Revolution – The Wealth of Nations and the Market Economy / 012
1.4 The Great Divergence Between East and West / 014

Chapter 2 Global Crises in the Era of the British Empire
2.1 The King's Guillotine and the French Fiscal Crisis / 017
2.2 The British Fiscal Crisis and the American Revolutionary War / 021
2.3 Why Britain Became the Epicenter of 11 Economic Crises / 024
2.4 The Millennium Crisis in the East / 026
Summary / 035
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 1776-1900 / 036

Part II The Wall Street Era: America Takes the Baton (1901-1913)
Chapter 3 The Transfer of Power from London to Wall Street
3.1 From the Netherlands and Britain to American Wall Street / 044
3.2 The Great Game: The Power of Wall Street / 048

Chapter 4 Growing Pains
4.1 Infrastructure, Civil War, and the "Wall Street Empire" / 054
4.2 America Moves to the Center of Crisis / 054
4.3 Darkness Before Dawn / 064
4.4 Savior Morgan / 068
4.5 The Central Bank: The Federal Reserve / 072
Summary / 077
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 1901-1913 / 078

Part III Acts of God and Man: War, Plague, and the Great Depression (1914-1946)
Chapter 5 WWI, Plague, and Bubble Bursts
5.1 The Guns of August / 081
5.2 Wilsonianism / 082
5.3 The Poisonous Roots of the Treaty of Versailles / 085
5.4 Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic / 088
5.5 The Versailles-Washington System / 089
5.6 The End of Empires / 090
5.7 The Dawes Plan / 093
5.8 The 1918 Influenza Pandemic / 095
5.9 The 1929 Great Depression / 097
5.10 The End of the Gold Standard / 105
5.11 The Economic Miracle of Nazi Germany / 109
5.12 Japan's Wrong Turn / 112

Chapter 6 WWII, Currency, and a New Order
6.1 The Darkest Hour / 114
6.2 The Eve of Pearl Harbor / 117
6.3 Bretton Woods / 118
6.4 Postwar New Order: America Takes Center Stage / 122
6.5 The Iron Curtain Speech / 124
Summary / 126
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 1914-1946 / 127

Chapter 7 Rescue, Reconstruction, and the Dawn of the Cold War
7.1 The Korean War / 131
7.2 The Marshall Plan / 133
7.3 The Suez Moment / 135
7.4 The 1958 Economic Crisis / 137
7.5 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations / 140
7.6 The 1964 Sterling Crisis / 142
7.7 The US-Soviet Cold War / 144
7.8 China in the Middle / 146

Part IV Cold War, Hot War, and Stagflation (1947-1980)
Chapter 8 Hot War, Miracles, and Stagflation
8.1 The Vietnam War and the Dollar Crisis / 147
8.2 The Middle East Wars and the Oil Crisis / 153
8.3 The Economic Magic of Defeated Nations / 157
8.4 The Great Stagflation in the US / 162
8.5 China's Reform 1978 / 167
8.6 The Iranian Revolution 1979 / 168
8.7 Wealthy Nations That Fell Behind After the War / 170
8.8 Review of Postwar Economic Crises / 173
Summary / 176
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 1947-1980 / 177

Part V Prosperity and Recession: Debt, New Policies, and Downturn (1981-2000)
Chapter 9 Debt, New Policies, and the Plaza Accord
9.1 The Latin American Sovereign Debt Crisis / 181
9.2 Reaganomics / 186
9.3 Thatcherism / 189
9.4 Japan-US Economic Competition / 192
9.5 The Truth of the Plaza Accord / 194
9.6 Black Monday / 196
9.7 The Formation of the EU and the Birth of the Euro / 201
9.8 The Great Transformation in Eastern Europe / 206
9.9 The First Gulf War / 210
9.10 The Washington Consensus and Shock Therapy / 211
9.11 The Japanese Asset Price Bubble Collapse: The Lost 30 Years / 213
9.12 The 1995 Mexican Peso Crisis / 218
9.13 The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis / 220
9.14 The South Korean Foreign Exchange Crisis / 228
9.15 The 1998 Russian Debt Crisis / 230
9.16 The Lament of Export-Dependent Economies / 234
9.17 Problems of State-Directed Economies / 234
9.18 The Latin American Middle-Income Trap: The Institutional Trap / 236
9.19 India: Politics Right, Economics Left / 238
Summary / 240
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 1981-2000 / 241

Part VI Credit, Debt, and Globalization (2001-2020)
Chapter 10 Bubbles, Technology, and Financial Crisis
10.1 The Dot-com Bubble / 245
10.2 The 9/11 Attacks and Two Wars on Terror / 249
10.3 The 2008 US Financial Crisis / 254
10.4 The Fed's Philosophy and Actions in Crisis Response / 259
10.5 Comparing the Two Great Crises: 1929 vs. 2008 / 262
10.6 The European Debt Crisis / 268

Chapter 11 Currency, Debt, and Order Crisis
11.1 Concerns About Debt-Driven Economics / 272
11.2 Abenomics / 274
11.3 Soaring India and Modi / 276
11.4 The Crisis of Globalization / 277
Summary / 290
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 2001-2020 / 291

Part VII The Great Pandemic and Supply Chain Restructuring (2021-2025)
Chapter 12 The COVID-19 Crisis
12.1 Three Years of the Great Pandemic / 295
12.2 The American-Style Bailout / 299

Chapter 13 Tariffs, Supply Chain Restructuring, and World Transformation
13.1 Global Tariff Wars in the Trump 2.0 Era: Process and Solutions / 302
13.2 Supply Chain Restructuring / 305
13.2.1 Four Major Reasons / 306
13.2.2 How to Restructure / 312
13.2.3 Impacts of Restructuring / 316
13.3 The Great Transformation of World Order and Structure / 317

Part VIII Looking Back at Patterns, Looking Ahead to the Next Decade (2026-2036)
Chapter 14 Review and Reflection on Old Crises
14.1 18 Logics Behind Crises / 320
14.2 The Change of a Century: The Change of Cycles / 326
14.3 Reviewing the Patterns of 22 Real Estate Bubble Bursts Over 50 Years / 340
Summary / 349
Note: The Eastern and Western Worlds, 2021-2025 / 350

Chapter 15 New Crisis Outlook: Six Crisis Shadows for the Next Decade
15.1 Crisis One: Geopolitical and War Crisis / 354
15.2 Crisis Two: Economic, Financial, and Debt Crisis Risks / 382
15.3 Crisis Three: Demographic and Social Crisis / 397
15.4 Crisis Four: The Fourth Technological Revolution and AI Crisis / 404
15.5 Crisis Five: Climate Crisis / 408
15.6 Crisis Six: The Next Plague / 410
Summary / 413

Epilogue: A World of Imbalance and Rebalance / 414